Crude oil continues to pass through the Strait of Hormuz at pre-conflict levels – yet refined fuel is moving 80% slower than normal.

What does this structural disconnect mean for the escalating cost of diesel in the UK?

I recently joined Ian Collins on TalkTV to unpack the complex mechanics behind the UK’s energy security and what high pump prices signal for the broader economy.

While headline figures often trigger immediate talk of a “fuel crisis,” the geopolitical reality is far more nuanced. Consider the structural shift in the UK's domestic energy backbone:

·       Strategic Dependency: In 2011, the UK was fully self-sufficient in diesel. Today, we import approximately 55%, with over a third sourced directly from the United States.

·       Refining Capacity: Domestic infrastructure has contracted significantly – falling from nine operational refineries down to just four.

This begs the question: is the UK heading towards a fuel crisis?

No – not in terms of global availability. The supply exists. It is an infrastructure and distribution challenge rather than an absolute shortage.

As global supply lines adapt to geopolitical shifts, resilience will depend on how effectively national strategies address import dependencies and supply chain flexibility.

Watch the full analysis on TalkTV (from 1:41:45): https://www.youtube.com/live/sOu9prgo-ew?is=ybdCiUatO9sNfvPf